Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.125546 4.573134 5.111904 5.830615 6.805257 8.158326 10.369249
2025-01-05 3.461497 3.958363 4.603175 5.555966 7.057444 9.692809 16.454250
2025-01-12 3.064006 3.558055 4.224311 5.265859 7.066542 10.830246 27.225793
2025-01-19 2.826303 3.321094 4.008815 5.135144 7.250795 12.566907 95.688096
2025-01-26 2.726660 3.252640 4.013007 5.340301 8.165037 18.277371 NaN
2025-02-02 2.675382 3.241675 4.095231 5.696770 9.700824 40.430428 NaN
2025-02-09 2.572323 3.142446 4.021221 5.738724 10.497194 148.281499 NaN
2025-02-16 2.490302 3.065797 3.972000 5.816175 11.533433 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.364801 2.913441 3.779136 5.547895 11.095969 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.298737 2.847501 3.726717 5.577763 11.947867 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.232607 2.776710 3.658424 5.557666 12.613548 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.153237 2.680658 3.537755 5.394631 12.433704 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.123746 2.664020 3.561256 5.595120 14.767868 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.038715 2.554913 3.409807 5.336359 13.817503 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.958039 2.449787 3.260350 5.068882 12.719233 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.901248 2.380624 3.172598 4.948172 12.603512 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.886750 2.378041 3.205293 5.137409 15.089646 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.886552 2.398182 3.281578 5.464654 20.805056 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.855677 2.366284 3.256109 5.503037 23.839409 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.829784 2.341367 3.242188 5.573823 28.924426 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.776147 2.268269 3.129730 5.328227 24.815512 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.750520 2.241182 3.106603 5.355626 28.744370 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.722209 2.208514 3.070449 5.337191 31.940796 NaN NaN